Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday said that the challenging global economic environment will make it difficult for central banks to decide when to pause and ease the monetary policy. RBI in Its monthly bulletin said also said that the US monetary tightening adversely affects the net worth of Indian firms and reduces domestic credit relative to external credit.
RBI bulletin is a monthly publication that gives insights into the economic developments in both India and abroad.
In its February edition RBI said, “A global economy on the cusp of recession remains unpredictable. 2023 would still be a challenging year. Central banks will find it difficult to gauge where to pause and ease. The worst of their fears can come true if indeed global growth slows but inflation remains elevated.”
The bulletin said, In the aftermath of multiple shocks, the global economy is projected to contract significantly in 2023.
However, it added that the worst for the global economy, both in terms of growth and inflation, seems to be behind us. Lately, with some ebbing of COVID-related restrictions and cooling of inflation in various countries, though still elevated, central banks have started what appears to be a pivot towards lower rate hikes or pauses.
At the same time, they continue to emphatically reiterate their resolve to bring inflation down closer to targets. High policy rates for a longer duration appear to be a distinct possibility, going forward, the RBI said.
Economic Shocks From Advanced Economies
RBI’s bulletin also said that economic shocks from advanced economies as a result of policy changes could pose a major challenge to emerging markets,
“Cross-border transmission of economic shocks from changes in the macroeconomic policy stance in advanced economies is a key challenge for emerging market economies in today’s world,” the bulletin said.
The bulletin showed how the US monetary policy shocks affected the global economy, primarily through global asset prices and capital flows.
“Often, contractions in US monetary policy are followed by significant deleveraging of global financial intermediaries, especially in the emerging market economies (EME),” the bulletin said.
Implications For The Indian Economy
The bulletin demonstrated how the US monetary tightening has a negative impact on Indian enterprises’ net worth and how domestic credit has decreased in relation to external credit. The report also showed that US monetary policy decisions had a major impact on Indian equities markets, with this effect becoming greater over time, in addition to the credit effect on specific enterprises.
“Quantitative easing (QE) by the US Fed had significantly altered monetary conditions in India, particularly, QE1 that had the largest impact, and the bulletin also showed that QE-related spillovers worked mainly through the portfolio rebalancing channel followed by the liquidity channel,” it said.